In a peer-reviewed journal article, Johns Hopkins University researcher Roger J. Stern argues that the decades-old belief that petroleum-rich Persian Gulf nations must be appeased to keep oil flowing is imaginary, and the threat of deployment of an "oil weapon" is toothless.The real security problem, says Stern, comes from market power. Persian Gulf oil producers collude to command artificially high prices that could never exist in a competitive market.
"U.S. appeasement of the oil market power not only helps create these problems, it makes them inevitable," said Stern.
Recent history shows that attempts to use an oil weapon have consistently failed.
In 1973 Persian Gulf states unleashed the oil weapon, but because the U.S. could obtain fuel from elsewhere, and because the Persian Gulf nations were dependent on oil revenue, their "attack" was quickly abandoned.
Panic buying kept prices high for a while, but actual supply fell only a small amount.
Oil market power and United States national security
Posted on 24 January 2006 @ 15:43 GMT